Hurricane Predictions Are Out

It may be another tough hurricane season for residents of the Gulf Coast, particularly New Orleans. The National Hurricane Center said that there could be as many as 16 named storms this season, with up to six major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher. New Orleans is the city predicted to be the most at risk this season as well, in part due to the weakness of the levees and in part due to the predicted paths of the storms. The predictions came as an independent report criticized agencies responsible for the levees at all levels, saying that they have been poorly funded and improperly maintained.

On the positive side, 2006 should not be as destructive as last season's record year. Last year saw 28 named storms, 15 of which were hurricanes, seven of them Category 3 or higher. FEMA is not taking any chances though, with new director David Paulison saying that some Gulf Coast families living in FEMA trailers will have to evacuate if winds reach 39 mph.

New Orleans must brace for this hurricane season and do the best it can to make it through. Any action now on significantly upgrading the levees is not likely to do much good. However, after this season, a major program of strengthening and upgrading the levees must be undertaken to restore public faith in the viability of New Orleans as a place to live and work.

Nagin's Victory

In last night's runoff election for mayor, Ray Nagin defeated Mitch Landrieu by winning approximately 52% of the vote compared with Landrieu's 47%. Voter turnout was about 38%. Mayor Nagin has convinced the people of New Orleans that he is the right man to lead this city out of the depths of destruction toward a better, hopeful future. After a contentious election, he must rally all New Orleanians to unite and rebuild together. Secondly, he must do all that he can to develop and effective plan for the city government to rebuild the city and then execute that plan. This will lead the rest of the nation to be more inclined to aid New Orleans in its recovery. In addition, Nagin must serve as New Orleans' chief PR man and representative to the world. He must become the symbol of a stronger-than-ever New Orleans in the minds of Americans in much the same way that Rudy Giuliani did for New York after September 11, 2001. As a popular and strong leader, he will find it easier to convince the federal government to take an active role in the city's rebuilding.

Once again, the most important priority has to be the levees. All signs indicate that it is going to be another tough hurricane season, but New Orleans can survive the storms. However, what it will not be able to survive is the perception that it is taking no action to protect itself. Mayor Nagin must take action to strengthen the city's hurricane and flood defenses.

Confusion About Levees Status During Storm

More emails obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, a watchdog group, demonstrate the incompetence of FEMA and its former chief, Michael Brown, during the onslaught of Hurricane quatrain.

At 9:50 a.m. on August 29, 2005, a local New Orleans TV station reported that a levee breach had occurred near the Ninth Ward neighborhood. The information was relayed by a FEMA staffer at the National Hurricane Center. Over two hours later, Brown denied that report and said that levees had been overrun but had not been broken. As a further embarrassment to Brown, the emails show that at 6:21 a.m. on the day Katrina hit the Gulf Coast, Brown was preparing for an interview and e-mailing with his then-deputy, Patrick Rhode. "Yea, sitting in the chair, putting mousse in my hair," Brown told Rhode in an email.

The episode underscores a major problem faced by U.S. national emergency agencies; difficulties in communication and obtaining and sharing accurate information. FEMA, or any agency that replaces it, must have better information-gathering and sharing capabilities. For a local TV station to have better information than FEMA, who has the resources of the U.S. government, is unacceptable. Accurate information must also be conveyed much faster. The confusion about the status of the levees hampered efforts to stop the floodwater and save lives. As the most important line of defense, the levees must be carefully monitored in future storms.