Hurricane Predictions for 2007

Unfortunately, top hurricane forecasters are predicting a large amount of hurricane during the upcoming season after a very calm 2006 season. For the period from June 1-November 30 2007, Colorado State University forecaster William Gray predicted that there will be seventeen tropical storms, nine hurricanes, and five Category 3 or higher hurricanes. Gray is a closely followed hurricane expert, and his predictions were mirrored by the respected London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk. Gray also forecast a 74% chance that a major hurricane will hit the United States, which is much higher than the 20th century risk of 52%.

It is important to note that Gray also predicted an active hurricane season last year but his predictions were incorrect. He attributed his inaccuracy to the presence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean that have now disappeared.

I hope that he is wrong again, but I hope even more fervently that the federal, state, and city governments have prepared as best as they can and have improved their emergency procedures since Katrina and Rita hit in 2005.