Hurricane Predictions for 2007

Unfortunately, top hurricane forecasters are predicting a large amount of hurricane during the upcoming season after a very calm 2006 season. For the period from June 1-November 30 2007, Colorado State University forecaster William Gray predicted that there will be seventeen tropical storms, nine hurricanes, and five Category 3 or higher hurricanes. Gray is a closely followed hurricane expert, and his predictions were mirrored by the respected London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk. Gray also forecast a 74% chance that a major hurricane will hit the United States, which is much higher than the 20th century risk of 52%.

It is important to note that Gray also predicted an active hurricane season last year but his predictions were incorrect. He attributed his inaccuracy to the presence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean that have now disappeared.

I hope that he is wrong again, but I hope even more fervently that the federal, state, and city governments have prepared as best as they can and have improved their emergency procedures since Katrina and Rita hit in 2005.

New Orleans Levees Petition

It is definitely time for the Corps of Engineers and the Federal Government to stop messing around in New Orleans. The Corps' latest gaffe came recently with the revelation by the Associated Press that the Corps installed 34 defective pumps at three critical drainage canals before the onset the 2006 hurricane season. The defective pumps, which experienced problems like broken hoses and engine overheating, were installed just as the government was telling New Orleanians that it was safe to return to the city. The kicker to the whole sordid story, aside from the former business partnership between Jeb Bush and the pump company's owner, is that an engineer in the Corps voiced the reservations she had about the new pumps in a 2006 memo. Lt. General Carl Strock told the Senate that he never saw the memo.

First of all, I agree with http://www.levees.org that it is high time for an unbiased investigation into the levee failures after Katrina and the subsequent failures to repair the New Orleans levees. It is high time that the New Orleans levees be strengthened so that they can actually protect the city. Almost two years after the storm, the federal government continues to play games with funding repairs and upgrades to the New Orleans levees while the state and city governments are still trying to invigorate recovery programs. In spite of the recent pumps report, federal Gulf Coast hurricane recovery czar Donald Powell claims that the city's hurricane protection system is, "better than it has ever been." I hope that he was just trying to instill a false sense of security in New Orleanians like last year and that he does not actually believe that New Orleans is ready for a major hurricane.

The time to take action on the New Orleans levees is coming in 2008. Not too long ago, Senator Barack Obama led a Congressional delegation down to New Orleans to hold hearings about the recovery while former Senator John Edwards launched his Presidential campaign from the 9th Ward. The nearly 18,000 people who signed this petition are a powerful statement that Americans want to build a Category 5 hurricane and flood protection system for New Orleans and that such a system must be on the front burner for the next President of the United States.

Time Running Out for New Orleans Residents?

I recently came across a very troubling article from the Associated Press titled "New Orleans Residents Bailing Out". The article discusses a survey conducted by University of New Orleans political scientist Susan Howell. Howell found that 32% of the New Orleans residents polled are considering leaving the city within two years. Howell summed up the feelings of many New Orleanians perfectly when she said that, "People are in a state of limbo. They're asking, `Is it worth it for me to stay? Is it worth it to invest?' If you don't feel safe, from crime or the levees, and you see destruction every day when you drive, it becomes discouraging."

The article also mentions that figures from three of the country's largest moving companies show that more people left the New Orleans area moved in last year.

It is clear that if the federal government does not take significant action to strengthen the levees, and the state and local governments do not get their acts together with programs such as Road Home, then New Orleans' recovery will be seriously jeopardized. Who is going to start a family in a place where bickering between state and city officials has precluded distributing half of the$750 million in federal money allocated for badly needed infrastructure projects? What business is going to invest in a city that has, at best, hurricane defenses that leave it as vulnerable to hurricanes and floods as its predecessors that failed during Hurricane Katrina?

The Democratic Congress needs to keep its promise that New Orleans will be a "front-burner" issue and finance the construction of a Category 5 hurricane and flood protection system. At the same time, the state and city governments need to implement the bureaucratic changes that will give Congress the confidence it needs to allocate the large sums of money that are needed for such a project.

New Candidates, Same Questions

First, I would like to applaud the incredible season that the New Orleans Saints had. Their grit and determination on the field reflects the city that they represent.

Secondly, this past week saw Illinois Senator Barack Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton officially enter the race for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. They are two distinguished figures with enormous clout on the national stage. Right now, their rhetoric is focused on Iraq, but the Gulf Coast's problems need to be addressed as well. I have contacted Sen Clinton's and Obama's offices and am waiting on responses as to what their positions are regarding a Category 5 levee system for New Orleans. New Orleans and the Gulf Coast must remain on the agenda for policymakers in Washington, and we must work to keep them there.

Latest New Orleans Population Figures

A new survey conducted by the Louisiana Public Health Institute announced that 187,525 people currently live in New Orleans. That is 41% shy of the the city's pre-Katrina population of 454,000 people. The survey was done for the Louisiana Recovery Authority and involved survey takers going door to door in neighbrohoods throughout the city. Louisiana Recovery Authority spokeswoman Natalie Wyeth stated that the results are "the definitive, most precise set of numbers we've seen." The population figure greatly differs with Mayor Ray Nagin's estimate. He has concluded that the city will have 300,000 people by year's end.

The figure is significantly less than the pre-Katrina population of the city. It is an indication that New Orleanians scattered throughout the country do not believe that the quality of life situation in the city merits a return. Moreover, the neighborhoods in which the 187,525 people reside is significant for the determination of where and what to rebuild in New Orleans. It will determine where to build new homes, schools, hospitals, etc. Next session, Congress must immediately take up greater hurricane and flood protection because with every day that passes with no action New Orleans' future is thrown deeper into doubt.

New Orleans, One Year Later

It has officially been one year since Hurricane Katrina made landfall just east of New Orleans. One year ago, 1,800 people lost their lives and hundreds of thousands were displaced due to the storm's intensity, the failure of the city's flood defenses, and the government's bungled response.
After the storm, we saw incompetence and compassion, frustration and determination, in New Orleans. To date about 250,000 New Orleanians have returned home and billions of dollars have been channeled into the city and the Gulf Coast for relief and recovery. Volunteers have poured into the city to help the beleagured residents rebuild. Many Americans have contributed some form of aid to New Orleans.

However, New Orleans faces many urgent challenges that must be tackled immediately and effectively if the city is to truly recover. The city's hurricane and flood defenses must be strengthened to the point where they can repulse Category 5 hurricanes and the flooding that can accompany them. It is crucial for long-term investment and settlement in the city. That new system must incorporate restored wetlands that will provide a buffer during future hurricanes. Furthermore, violent crime must be ended. The gruesome headlines of murder after murder in New Orleans are hurting the city's image at a time when the city is carefully trying to craft an optimistic image. The NOPD must be given the resources it needs, and the direction from capable officials at the top, to end the violent crime. In addition, New Orleans needs to shore up its school system to attract young families. Finally, the state of Louisiana needs to get its fair share of offshore energy royalties that are currently kept by the federal government. This money would do wonders for New Orleans.

A lot of people are not optimistic when assessing New Orleans' chances at fully recovering and regaining its former glory. Many say that not enough is being done. The damage from Katrina is still visible; some places have still not been cleaned up. The city is still underpopulated. While more certainly needs be done, I believe that the city will ultimately come back stronger. New Orleanians are determined to bring their city back, and the American people do not want to see New Orleans fail. One year later, the recovery has been set in motion but there is still much work to be done in the Big Easy.

Spike Lee and "When the Levees Broke"

While watching Spike Lee's documentary "When the Levees Broke" several thoughts came to mind. He did an excellent job in showing the destruction, both the physical and the emotional, of New Orleans. His questions during interviews with notable figures in the tragedy were dead on and brought out interesting and differing perspectives on the storm and its aftermath. The importance of drawing the distinction between when the storm's damage ended and when the man-made damage caused by the failure of the city's defenses and the federal government's response began cannot be underestimated.

However, all those things being said, I strongly disagree with the notion that the levees were "blown up" by the federal government. It was raised in the documentary and the fact that it has some proponents baffles me. I understand why the African-American community would distrust the federal government after so many years of injustice, but the claim that explosives were set to breach the levees so that African Americans would be flooded out is simply ridiculous. It would be impossible to flood just the predominantly black Lower Ninth Ward without also flooding predominantly white Chalmette and other areas of St. Bernard Parish. After any major tragedy, conspiracy theories always abound in an attempt to explain how something so tragic could have had happened.

This documentary is important in telling the world what happened in New Orleans on August 29, 2006 and in the days and weeks afterward. However, we must continue to look forward to the day when New Orleans will be rebuilt with strengthened hurricane and flood defenses.